The Numbers That Don’t Add Up
When Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared winner of the October 29, 2025 presidential election with 97.66% of the vote, the result sent shockwaves through the international community—not as a triumph of democracy, but as a stark warning of its erosion.
The statistics alone paint a troubling picture: 31 million votes counted out of 37 million registered voters within 72 hours, amid internet blackouts and communication difficulties. Her ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party secured 270 out of 272 parliamentary seats. These figures prompted Kenyan Senior Counsel Ahmednasir Abdullahi to observe that while CCM ”would have won easily, very easily in any given situation,” these numbers represent ”ex facie evidence of fundamentally flawed elections.”
An Election Without Opposition
The path to Hassan’s landslide victory was paved not through democratic competition, but through systematic elimination of viable challengers. Opposition leader Tundu Lissu of the Chadema party was arrested in April 2025 on treason and incitement charges after calling for electoral reforms. On April 12, both he and his party were disqualified from the election. Another opposition figure, Luhaga Mpina of the ACT-Wazalendo party, was similarly barred from running.
Hassan ultimately faced only 16 candidates from smaller parties—none with the infrastructure or support to mount a meaningful challenge. As critics noted, this was not an election but a coronation.
Violence in the Streets
The announcement of results triggered unprecedented protests across Tanzania. What began as demonstrations in Dar es Salaam quickly spread to Mbeya, Tunduma, and other major cities. The government’s response was swift and brutal: military deployment, a nationwide curfew, and a three-day internet shutdown that left the country isolated from the world.
The death toll remains deeply contested and uncertain. According to The Guardian, Chadema spokesperson John Kitoka reported approximately 700 deaths across the country, with around 350 in Dar es Salaam and over 200 in Mwanza. He stated these numbers were gathered by party members visiting hospitals and health clinics to count bodies. A security source told Agence France-Presse there had been reports of ”more than 500 dead, maybe 700-800 in the whole country,” while Amnesty International said it had received information that at least 100 people had been killed.
However, the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) reported receiving credible accounts of at least 10 deaths by security forces in Dar es Salaam, Shinyanga, and Morogoro, noting that security forces fired live ammunition and teargas to disperse protesters. OHCHR spokesperson Seif Magango urged security forces to refrain from using unnecessary or disproportionate force.
The vast discrepancy in reported casualties reflects the difficulty of independent verification during the communications blackout and curfew. As human rights lawyer Tito Magoti told The Guardian, the use of force was ”unjustified” and President Hassan ”must refrain from deploying the police against the people.”
The foreign ministers of the United Kingdom, Canada, and Norway issued a joint statement citing ”credible reports of a large number of fatalities and significant injuries, as a result of the security response to protests.”
The Architecture of Repression
The election did not occur in isolation but rather as the culmination of years of systematic repression under Hassan’s administration. Despite initial hopes when she took office in 2021 following the death of President John Magufuli, Hassan has presided over what the International Crisis Group called ”an unprecedented crackdown on political opponents.”
The record is sobering: more than 200 cases of enforced disappearance since 2019 according to UN human rights experts, a ban on the social media platform X, restrictions on local digital forums, and the silencing of critical voices through intimidation and arrest. Freedom House downgraded Tanzania from ”partly free” to ”not free” in 2024—a status it maintains today.
Human Rights Watch documented how the Tanzanian media was systematically stifled, while the electoral commission’s independence was compromised by institutional bias. High-profile abductions escalated in the final days before the election, creating what rights groups described as a ”wave of terror” across the nation.
Generation Z Takes to the Streets
The protesters who defied curfews and internet blackouts were predominantly young Tanzanians—Generation Z and younger millennials who feel left behind by the system. Drawing comparisons to youth-led protests in Kenya and other African nations this year, these young Tanzanians organized online, tore down Hassan’s campaign posters, and clashed with security forces despite the risks.
Their demands went beyond merely contesting the election results. According to The Guardian, Chadema spokesperson John Kitoka called for the government to ”stop killing our protesters” and demanded a transitional government to pave the way for free and fair elections, saying ”Stop police brutality. Respect the will of the people which is electoral justice.” As human rights lawyer Tito Magoti observed, ”The mood of the country is that there was no election … We cannot vote for one candidate.”
International Response: Endorsement and Condemnation
The international response to Hassan’s victory has been sharply divided. While UN officials and Western governments expressed concern about the electoral process and called for investigations into violence, some regional leaders offered congratulations.
Notably, Somalia’s president endorsed Hassan’s victory, prompting fierce criticism on social media. Critics argued that such endorsements ”without credibility only deepen the legitimacy crisis surrounding Tanzania’s election,” as one commentator put it, adding that diplomatic courtesy was being prioritized over democratic truth.
The contrast highlights a broader tension in African politics: between regional solidarity and accountability, between stability and democracy, between the rhetoric of democratic values and their practical application.
The Road Ahead
As Hassan begins her second term, Tanzania faces a profound legitimacy crisis. The government has postponed university reopenings and maintains a heavy security presence in major cities. The internet remains intermittently accessible, and a tense calm has settled over streets that days earlier erupted in protest.
In her victory speech, Hassan called for national unity: ”After the election, it’s time to unite our country and not destroy what we’ve built over more than six decades.” Yet her warning was telling: ”When it comes to the security of Tanzania, there is no debate—we must use all available security avenues to ensure the country remains safe.”
For opposition parties and their supporters, the message is clear: dissent will not be tolerated. For the international community, Tanzania presents yet another test of how to respond when democratic backsliding accelerates in a strategically important nation.
The numbers from Tanzania’s election—97.66%, 31 million votes in 72 hours, 270 of 272 parliamentary seats—will likely enter the annals of disputed elections alongside other suspect landslides. But behind these statistics lies a more profound question: Can democracy survive when the very mechanisms meant to protect it are systematically dismantled?
For the young Tanzanians who braved bullets and beatings to protest, the answer remains uncertain. Their struggle continues, even as the international spotlight inevitably moves on to the next crisis. The election may be over, but the fight for Tanzania’s democratic future has only just begun.
As of November 2, 2025, the full extent of casualties remains deeply disputed, with communications restrictions continuing to hamper independent reporting from Tanzania.
Sources: The Guardian, UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), Al Jazeera, NPR, CNN, The Washington Post, Agence France-Presse
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/31/tanzania-election-protests-opposition
About the Author
